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I think we are reacting too strongly to Northern Illinois 63 points a week ago to Toledo. Bowling Green matches up much better despite their 91st run defense because their pass defense is pretty good and they are even better at home allowing 52.4% completion rate and 1 TD with 5.4 yards per attempt. Chandler Harnish might have a more challenging game especially since Bowling Green has an extra few days to prepare for what is a huge game for them. Their bowl stakes are on the line and so is the MAC East the two teams ahead of them they have beat and they have Ohio next week. This is the same defense that beat temple 13-10 at home and was within 7 points to Toledo. Bowling Green’s defense has only allowed 13 red zone attempts at home and allowed just 7 TD’s so I also think Northern Illinois will be held to some field goals tonight it won’t be as easy as Toledo. Also Bowling Green holds their opponents to 26% 3rd down conversions on the year at home Toledo was not nearly as good and 2 TD’s came off of kick off returns for Northern Illinois. Bowling Green is much more solid defending kick off returns. For the record Northern Illinois is just 38% on 3rd downs on the road. They also lose the time of possession battle constantly because of how bad their defense has been and how good their offense has been. Expect Bowling Green to have the ball most of the game.

Northern Illinois defense that’s the main point here they are ranked 103rd in total defense and they do nothing well at this point, 104th rushing defense 104th in pass efficiency defense and 109th in scoring defense allowing a crazy 73.33 % of red zone possessions to be turned into TD’s. I think Matt Schilz and Bowling Green should be able to score as much as they want. They also get RB Anthon Samuel back who has been hurt. On the season he’s averaging 5.97 yards per carry on 118 carries. Expect him to have a huge game and if Schilz can limit the mistakes which he should as Northern Illinois defense is just not forcing turnovers then I think Bowling Green should win. Basically this is a road game in conference and the dog can win this game their defense is better and their offense is just as capable of putting up points. Bowling Green is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as a home dog 3.5 to 10 points.

Where to find Freddy?